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If there’s no restaurant, we should feel the same confusion we feel when a bill has sat on the floor of Grand Central Station for a week.

Maybe the city government banned Thai restaurants for some reason? We can take this beyond money-making into any competitive or potentially-competitive field. There are thousands of research biologists who would like a Nobel Prize.

Consider a freshman biology student reading her textbook who suddenly feels like she’s had a deep insight into the structure of DNA, easily worthy of a Nobel. For all of them to miss a brilliant insight sitting in freshman biology would be the same failure as everybody missing a on the floor of Grand Central, or all of Wall Street missing an easy opportunity to make money off of Google, or every entrepreneur missing a great market opportunity for a Thai restaurant.

So without her finding any particular flaw in her theory, she can be pretty sure that it’s wrong – or else already discovered.

Or: suppose you think that US cities don’t have good mass transit.

But if lots of people want better mass transit and are willing to pay for it, this is a great money-making opportunity.

But winners will probably be people with access to new ground that hasn’t already been covered by other -seekers.All the sick people would go to them, they would make lots of money, investors would trip over each other to fund their expansion into new markets, and eventually they would take over health care and be super rich.So “health care is inefficient and overpriced” seems like the same kind of statement as “a bill has been on the floor of Grand Central Station for a week and nobody has picked it up.” Therefore, health care isn’t inefficient or overpriced.They also have enough money that if they see a money-making opportunity, they can keep buying until they’ve driven the price up to the right level.So for Google to remain underpriced when your uncle sees it, you have to assume everyone at every Wall Street hedge fund has just failed to notice this tremendous money-making opportunity – the same sort of implausible failure as a staying on the floor of Grand Central for a week.

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